![]() ![]() I was looking forward to a longer discussion, a chance to elaborate on the low-frequency noise in this data and what it implies about possible inferences. #1 I agree that it does appear to be a case of biased sampling introducing a trend. Same as Figure 2 (hurricane strength measurements), restricted to east of 69W. Maybe this is all to do with the AMO as Judith Curry is now proposing, but again I think that the authors should try to work these things out before rather than after publishing.įigure 4. (I’m old enough that high school readings for me included novellas like Conrad’s Typhoon and Youth, so the memories of hurricanes and sailing vessels were still alive in literature in the 1950s and 1960s.) But what is one to make of the similar counts in the late 19th century? Is there a “regime change” associated with a changeover from sailing vessels to steam vessels? Looks possible to me. However, there’s something else interesting in this plot – if one is seeking “regimes” in this particular chart, one would be inclined to assign a regime to the post-1950 period i.e. ![]() Here the trend is not as strong as for storms, lending further support for the suspicion that there is a methodological bias in eastern “small” storms. Now for the same thing for hurricane-strength wind measurements showing the results E of 69W. As with Figure 1, restricted to east of 69W. However, isn’t this the sort of thing that the specialists should be doing before publishing articles announcing that the trends are “strong” and “statistically significant”?įigure 3. Is this climatological – Judith Curry suggests that it might be something to do with the AMO – or is it an artifact of changing measurements? I don’t know, although I’m inclined to think that it’s probably to do more with measurements than climatology. There’s a lot in common between Figure 1 and Figure 3, but obviously Figure 3 has a trend that doesn’t exist in Figure 1. Some storms will occur in both counts – we’re exploring the data here. Figure 3 below is calculated parallel to Figure 1. Here are the same graphs restricted to the east of 69W.
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